•In a legal limit, it could fund 240 presidential campaigns
In recent days, the CBEX investment scheme has come under intense scrutiny following revelations that it allegedly defrauded vulnerable Nigerians of an estimated N1.2 trillion.
While the human cost of this scam is staggering—wiping out life savings, pensions, and livelihoods—there’s another critical dimension that deserves attention: the sheer scale of this money and what it represents in Nigeria’s political economy.
To put it plainly, ₦1.2 trillion could bankroll a presidential campaign in Nigeria—and then some.
The Real Cost of Winning the Presidency
While the Electoral Act of 2022 legally caps campaign spending for presidential candidates at ₦5 billion, the reality on ground is far more complex. In 2022, respected economist Bismarck Rewane projected that the true cost of running a successful presidential campaign in Nigeria—when factoring in campaign operations, vote-buying, party logistics, litigation, and return-on-investment considerations—could run as high as ₦6 trillion.
Here’s a rough breakdown of that estimate:
Party Primaries & Internal Compensation: ₦1.1 trillion
Campaign Operations & Groundwork: ₦950 billion
Logistics, Vote Mobilization, and Buying: ₦1.1 trillion
Legal Expenses: ₦20 million
Interest on Loans (17%): ₦1.1 trillion
Expected Return On Investment (40% of two-year capital budget): ₦1.7 trillion
By these metrics, the CBEX ₦1.2 trillion haul would be enough to cover about 20% of the most lavishly funded presidential campaign possible in Nigeria today. Alternatively, if confined to the legal limit, that amount could fund 240 presidential campaigns.
If even a portion of the money stolen through CBEX or similar Ponzi-style operations finds its way into the political machinery, the implications are chilling. Such wealth, unearned and illegally acquired, could elevate corrupt financiers into political kingmakers, if not actual power-brokers.
This isn’t just theoretical. Nigeria has a long history of murky money fueling elections. When illicit funds are funneled into political campaigns, it tilts the playing field, drowns out legitimate candidates, and turns elections into high-stakes investments for syndicates looking to recoup their money through inflated contracts, patronage, and control of public resources.
Beyond its political implications, the CBEX fraud represents a tragic reversal of justice. Funds that could have built schools, hospitals, clean water systems, or empowered micro-enterprises were siphoned off into the pockets of fraudsters.
In an ironic twist, those same stolen funds could now be used to influence policy, buy votes, and install power players who are least accountable to the people who were robbed.
©Abioye Tosin Lawrence is the publisher of Oriontimes Online Newspaper.