2023 Polls: Tinubu likely to win popular vote | run-off possible

A survey by Enough Is Enough (EiE), a civil society organisation (CSO), and SBM Intelligence, a research firm, has predicted a likely victory for Bola Tinubu, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

In a report published on Friday, the organisations said the election forecast was based on a survey of 11,534 respondents across all 36 states and the federal capital territory (FCT).

According to the survey, Tinubu could win the popular vote depending on turnout in key states in the south-west and north-west.

The report added that there is a possibility of the country experiencing its first-ever run-off election.

“The path to Aso Rock has been riddled with permutations and scenario planning primarily because, for the first time since the era of parliamentary democracy in the 1960s, there are three competitive political blocs, broadly distributed along the eastern, northern, and western regional divides with a smattering of swing states where they must compete for absolute votes and vote share. Unfortunately, there isn’t as much interest in the down-ballot races,” the report reads.

“Turnout will increase in the elections, but some states will experience a low turnout. Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar will score 25% in at least 24 states.

“Depending on turnout in Kano, Lagos, and a few other states in the NW and SW, Bola Tinubu could win the popular vote, setting Nigeria up for a runoff election for the first time ever.

“The APC could win 60 seats in the senate, while the PDP may win 46 seats, leaving a margin of three seats which could go either way or could be taken by third parties.

“In the house, we believe that the APC may lose its majority and win 160 seats, and the PDP may win 185 seats, leaving 15 seats to go either way or to smaller parties.”

The report also suggested that Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) will get 25 percent of the votes in at least 24 states.

“The data suggest that two of the four leading candidates – the Labour Party’s Peter Obi and the Peoples Democratic Party’s Atiku Abubakar – could garner enough votes over a sufficient number of Nigerian states spread across four of the country’s six geopolitical zones to be able to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25% in at least 24 states,” the report reads.

“This outcome, however, is complicated by the fact that the All Progressives
Congress’s Bola Tinubu is likely to do well in two of the country’s biggest voting states – Kano and Lagos – and coupled with strong performances in a potpourri of heavily populated Southwest and Northwest states may have
the inside track on winning the popular vote.

“We, however, do not think he can reach the finish line in the race to 24. The New Nigeria Peoples Party’s Rabiu Kwankwaso, while not projected to win any state, may garner sufficient votes in Kano and a smattering of states in the North Central and North West geopolitical zones to complicate the political maths for the other candidates on both the popular vote and the ‘Road to 24’ measures.

“For all of the reasons enumerated above, we are not confident enough to call the election for any candidates.”

You can read the full report of the survey HERE.