Inside Nigeria: Erratic rainfall predicted in 2026

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has predicted erratic rainfall patterns and severe prolonged dry spells across the country in 2026.

The forecast is contained in the agency’s 2026 seasonal climate prediction (SCP) unveiled on Tuesday at the NAF Conference Centre in Abuja.

NiMet said rainfall during the year is expected to be inconsistent in timing and distribution, with some areas experiencing early onset and others witnessing delayed rains. The agency also warned of extended dry spells in parts of the country.

According to the outlook, early onset of rainfall is expected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa and Taraba states, while Borno is projected to experience a late onset.

The agency said rainfall cessation may occur earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger states, while a delayed end of season is expected in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna states.

NiMet also projected a longer-than-normal rainy season in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe and Taraba states. Parts of Borno, Yobe and Niger may experience a shorter season.

The forecast warned of severe dry spells exceeding 15 days between March and May in parts of Oyo and Ogun states.

Dry spells of up to 21 days are also expected between June and August across several northern and central states.

The agency said the short dry season, also known as the August break, may begin in late July and could be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo states.

NiMet added that daytime and nighttime temperatures are expected to be warmer than the long-term average in January, February, March and May 2026.

Festus Keyamo, minister of aviation and aerospace development, described the seasonal prediction as a vital planning tool for key sectors, including aviation, agriculture and disaster management.

He urged Nigerians, especially farmers, to rely on NiMet’s official rainfall onset dates rather than early rains already observed in parts of the south.

Charles Anosike, NiMet director-general, reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to providing science-based climate information and integrating artificial intelligence into its forecasting operations to improve accuracy.