MAN to FG: Rebased GDP shows fragile economy

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria has urged the Federal Government to prioritise manufacturing and industrialisation to reflect the real economic situation and gains of the country’s improved rebased Gross Domestic Product.

 

The Director General, MAN, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadri, made the call on Tuesday in Lagos, while reacting to Nigeria’s GDP growth of 3.13 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.

 

According to Ajayi-Kadri, the modest improvement from 2.27 per cent in the same period of 2024, indicates that the economy is capable of recovery.

 

He, however, noted that the rebased GDP, a revised nominal GDP estimate, was a direct outcome of improved data capture, especially in agriculture, services, and informal sector activities.

 

Ajayi-Kadri cautioned against interpreting the nominal expansion of the rebased GDP as evidence of significant economic progress.

 

He stated that in spite of the upward revision, real GDP growth remained weak, averaging just 1.95 per cent between 2020 and 2024.

 

This, he said, showed the underlying fragility of Nigeria’s productive base and the capacity of the economy to deliver sustainable and inclusive development.

 

“Industry’s share of GDP fell from 27.65 per cent in the 2010 base year to 21.08 per cent under the 2019 rebased structure, marking a structural shift away from production toward low-productivity service activities.

 

“The rebasing confirms that Nigeria’s economy may be statistically larger, but it is not more productive, nor more industrialised.

 

“While the rebasing exercise reveals a more diversified economy, it also exposes the underperformance of industry, particularly manufacturing, a sector which should be the backbone of Nigeria’s economic transformation,” he said.

 

Ajayi-Kadri urged the government to treat the rebased GDP not as a celebration of growth, but as a strong call for structural industrial reforms.

 

He stressed that Nigeria must re-industrialise to achieve inclusive growth, build export capacity, and reduce dependence on primary commodities and informal activities.

 

He called on the government to prioritise manufacturing in policy, financing, and infrastructure development.
He said this was important because without a strong industrial base, GDP expansion may just become a hollow statistic.

 

“The upward revision of Nigeria’s GDP to $243 billion could offer a lift in investors’ confidence and improve headline macroeconomic ratios such as the debt-to-GDP ratio.

 

“However, confidence in the economy is anchored not just on size, but on structural resilience, depth of industrial capacity and productivity growth.

 

“In this regard, we need to refocus on the development of the real and high-impact driven sector,” he said.

 

Ajayi-Kadri called for sustained industry-centric policies, already exemplified by the Industrial Revolution Working Group, infrastructure investments, and improved access to long-term finance to revitalise the industrial sector.

 

This, he said, was the way for the growth in GDP to alleviate poverty, create jobs, and contribute to macroeconomic stability.

 

The MAN DG strongly advocated a manufacturing-led growth strategy.

 

“This must include sector-specific interventions such as energy reliability for manufacturers, incentivised local content policies, streamlined regulatory frameworks, and strategic trade facilitation to boost competitiveness,” he said.

 

He added that the government should prioritise targeted industrial policy interventions to revive ailing sub-sectors such as textiles and vehicle assembly.

 

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